- NFL football is back.
- Through four weeks, our picks are 33-31 against the spread.
- This week we’re backing the Packers and Buccaneers to cover the number.
Football is back for another week of action.
Last week, our picks against the spread went a tough 6-10 to bring our season-long record to 33-31.
This week, we’re back with another full slate of games and looking to make a buck or two. Take a look below at our best bets against the spread for Week 5 of the NFL season (* indicates home team).
LAST WEEK: 6-10
Los Angeles Rams (-2.5) over Seattle Seahawks*
The Rams are 6-2 in their last eight games against the Seahawks. Aaron Donald against a shaky offensive line is something I want to bet on.
New York Jets (+3) over Atlanta Falcons
Two bad teams, playing in London. It’s fun to have action on the morning game, but I would probably bet either side of the total here before picking a team to win. Since we have to take one team or the other, give me the Jets and the points.
Green Bay Packers (-3) over Cincinnati Bengals*
The only concern here is that the bet feels too easy. The Bengals needed a huge comeback to take down the Jaguars last weekend. The Packers are looking like a powerhouse in the NFC again after three straight wins. It’s a trap game, but I’ll walk right into it if it means betting on Aaron Rodgers.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers* (-9.5) over Miami Dolphins
Tom Brady vs. a backup, I will take Tom Brady every time.
Tennessee Titans (-4.5) over Jacksonville Jaguars*
The Jaguars are a train wreck right now, with the entire locker room apparently laughing at Urban Meyer’s weekend escapades. They could win this game to spite him, but when a coach has lost the locker room, it’s hard not to bet against him.
New England Patriots (-9.5) over Houston Texans*
Davis Mills is a rookie quarterback that threw just 11 completions against four interceptions last weekend against the Bills. This week he faces a Bill Belichick defense. I wish him the best of luck.
Philadelphia Eagles (+3.5) over Carolina Panthers*
Jalen Hurts has been playing better than the Eagles’ record indicates, and this feels like it could be a good spot for him against a Panthers defense that is recalibrating after last week’s loss to the Cowboys.
Minnesota Vikings* (-7) over Detroit Lions
The Vikings have won seven straight games against the Lions, and just one of those seven victories was by less than a touchdown.
Pittsburgh Steelers* (-1) over Denver Broncos
Big Ben is bad, but it’s tough to trust how much this Broncos team will be able to move the ball with Drew Lock at quarterback. I’ll be cheering for Denver, but my money is on the Steelers.
New Orleans Saints (-2.5) over Washington Football Team*
Washington’s defense was supposed to be a force this year, but so far, they’ve given up more points than any team in the NFL outside of the Falcons and Chiefs.
Las Vegas Raiders* (-5) over Chicago Bears
The Raiders need to figure out how to shake their slow starts, but they have enough weapons to score on Chicago. Justin Fields showed promise last week, but he’s still figuring it out in real-time.
Cleveland Browns (+2) over Los Angeles Chargers*
The Chargers are coming off a big win in primetime and feel due for a let-down. The Browns won ugly last weekend. They won’t play that bad two games in a row.
New York Giants (+7) over Dallas Cowboys*
New York looked like they found a bit of something last week in their overtime win over the Saints. The Cowboys have won seven of the past eight meetings between these two teams, but every divisional game devolves into a rock fight in the NFC East.
San Francisco 49ers (+5.5) over Arizona Cardinals*
The Cardinals are the last undefeated team and are bound to break at some point. Just as they were able to upset the Rams last weekend and divisional underdogs, the 49ers are in a great spot to do the same here. Take a look at the moneyline if you’re interested in a little extra action.
Kansas City Chiefs* (-2.5) over Buffalo Bills
The Chiefs have been waiting for the chance to reestablish themselves as the team to beat in the AFC. This is it.
Baltimore Ravens* (-6.5) over Indianapolis Colts
Lamar Jackson hasn’t truly toasted a defense in a while. At home in primetime is the perfect place to do it.